A 50-minute interview with Amit Segal, Israeli political analyst
Dan Senor talks to Amit Segal, Israeli political analyst. This 50-minute episode was recorded on 6/15, Sunday morning, NY time. I’m finding it absolutely fascinating to listen to knowledgeable Israelis talk about the fight between Israel and Iran. (Dan Senor, the host of these conversations, is an American foreign policy expert.)
The people interviewed are very well-informed, very realistic about the nature of the fight, and very sharp. They all sound optimistic about the outcome of the battle. I’m concerned that they may be overly proud of what Israel has accomplished so far—the destruction of Hezbollah, the fall of Bashar al-Assad, the weakening of the Houthis and Hamas, and the destruction of Iran’s anti-aircraft defenses—but I think there is reason for optimism.
Here are a few of the points discussed.
In early April, all Republican Senators (except Rand Paul) and many Republican House members wrote letters to President Trump warning about Iran’s accelerated uranium enrichment efforts and expressing their concern that the Iranian negotiations with the US about a new nuclear agreement was a ruse to buy them more time to build a nuclear bomb. Apparently, a significant portion of the GOP base, including many evangelical Christians, sides strongly with Israel and wants to ensure its survival.
Iran began its dash to a bomb the day after Hamas attacked Israel. Iran wasn’t involved with the attack and may even have been surprised by it. But once it occurred, they believed that Israel would be preoccupied with Gaza and wouldn’t pay much attention to what it was doing.
Israel does not have the means to destroy Fordo, Iran’s enrichment center buried deep under a mountain. But the US does. It would take a single 11-ton bomb, which could be carried by a B-52 bomber.
If the US does the bombing, or even if the US makes the bomb and the bomber available to Israel, the war would be over in a couple of days. Otherwise, it might stretch on for another week or two before Israel destroys the Iranian military targets on its list.